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How to Take a Chance
By Darrell Huff
WW Norton & Co | 1959 | SBN 393 00263 2 | 173 pages | DJVU/PDF | 2.38/21.1 mb
PDF conversion is mine.
Probability theory is the underpinning of the modern world. Current research in both the physical and social sciences cannot be understood without it. Today's politics, tomorrows weather, next week's satellite all depend on it.By ignoring, or failing to grasp the laws of chance we hurt ourselves in many ways. We buy insurance we don't need, for instance, and then fail to injure the ritki we Should We nuke damaging decisions in busine« and in driving a car. We also gamble on syttCOtt to beat the house at blackjack, plajr unnecessarily bad bridge, and draw to inside sttaigbts. Fix the famous Law of Averages docs not mewl lliat half of all our guesses will ccene out right. Darrell Huff explains clearly and focctlully just wlt« it doc mean to take a diance, and show bow to recognize and deal effectively with the probabilities which so importantly affect our judgments and actions.
The author will tell you facts about odds and probability which will make you scratch your head and say, "I'll be darned", and sometimes slap your forehead and go, "of course!" Darrell Huff knows his subject, and Irving Geis' illustrations make everything clear in an amusing fashion. Readers who are interested in science, media, and politics will find the material relevant to today's topics, as well.
1. Girl or Boy, Heads or Tails? 15
2. How to Control Chance 31
3. The Difficulties of Probability 50
4. The Dice That Started It All 63
5. Why the Fire Tongs Burned Your Hand 73
6. The Strategy of Winning 85
7. Probability Deals a Hand 99
8. How to Look at a Statistic 113
9. The Great ESP Mystery 125
10. Living with Probabilities 137
11. How to Think About Luck 153
12. Probability Problems and Puzzles 159
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